Preference Formation in the Taiwan Strait: A Hierarchical and Conditional Model of Public Opinion toward Unification and Independence, 2008–2024

This thesis examines how Taiwanese public opinion on independence, unification, and the status quo has evolved between 2008 and 2024. Drawing on six waves of Taiwan National Security Survey data, I propose the "Cross-Strait Attitude Hierarchy," a framework combining identity-based predispositions and dynamic, conditional cost-benefit reasoning. Using cross-tabulation and multinomial logistic regression, the analysis shows that external factors—such as perceived Chinese military threats and U.S. defense commitments—consistently shape public attitudes, often more powerfully than demographic or partisan identities. The findings challenge static views of cross-strait preferences, demonstrating that Taiwanese citizens respond pragmatically to shifting political and economic conditions. This research offers important insights for scholars and policymakers seeking to understand the domestic underpinnings of Taiwan's foreign policy and regional security dynamics.