Association of Zip Code Vaccination Rate with COVID-19 Mortality in Chicago, Illinois

Importance: There has been large geographic inequity in vaccination coverage across Chicago, Illinois, with higher vaccination rates in zip codes with residents who predominantly have high incomes and are White. Objective: To determine the association between inequitable zip code-level vaccination coverage and COVID-19 mortality in Chicago.

Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used Chicago Department of Public Health vaccination and mortality data and Cook County Medical Examiner mortality data from March 1, 2020, through November 6, 2021, to assess the association of COVID-19 mortality with zip code-level vaccination rates. Data were analyzed from June 1, 2021, to April 13, 2022. Exposures: Zip code-level first-dose vaccination rates before the Alpha and Delta waves of COVID-19.

Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was deaths from COVID-19 during the Alpha and Delta waves. The association of a marginal increase in zip code-level vaccination rate with weekly mortality rates was estimated with a mixed-effects Poisson regression model, and the total number of preventable deaths in the least vaccinated quartile of zip codes was estimated with a linear difference-in-difference design.

Results: The study population was 2686355 Chicago residents in 52 zip codes (median [IQR] age 34 [32-38] years; 1378658 [51%] women; 773938 Hispanic residents [29%]; 783916 non-Hispanic Black residents [29%]; 894555 non-Hispanic White residents [33%]). Among residents in the least vaccinated quartile, 80% were non-Hispanic Black, compared with 8% of residents identifying as non-Hispanic Black in the most vaccinated quartile (P <.001). After controlling for age distribution and recovery from COVID-19, a 10-percentage point increase in zip code-level vaccination 6 weeks before the peak of the Alpha wave was associated with a 39% lower relative risk of death from COVID-19 (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.61 [95% CI, 0.52-0.72]). A 10-percentage point increase in zip code vaccination rate 6 weeks before the peak of the Delta wave was associated with a 24% lower relative risk of death (IRR, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.66-0.87]). The difference-in-difference estimate was that 119 Alpha wave deaths (72% [95% CI, 63%-81%]) and 108 Delta wave deaths (75% [95% CI, 66%-84%]) might have been prevented in the least vaccinated quartile of zip codes if it had had the vaccination coverage of the most vaccinated quartile.

Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that low zip code-level vaccination rates in Chicago were associated with more deaths during the Alpha and Delta waves of COVID-19 and that inequitable vaccination coverage exacerbated existing racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 deaths.