The Price Effects of Universal Basic Income

Universal basic income (UBI) has become a controversial proposal for alleviating poverty and increasing economic security. While many studies evaluate the effects of UBI, almost no research evaluates its macroeconomic effects, such as its impacts on prices. In order to assess how a UBI would truly impact its recipients' purchasing power, I evaluate the price effects of the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (APFD), a state-wide UBI funded by oil royalties. I implement the synthetic control method to determine if the Consumer Price Index (CPI), an indicator of general prices in the economy, changes differentially in the Anchorage metropolitan region from other metropolitan regions across the U.S. after the implementation of APFD. The synthetic control exhibits no meaningful difference in its CPI values after the implementation of the policy. These results suggest universal basic incomes do not raise prices, challenging a concern held by some critics of the policy.