Get Out the Vote (or Don't): Evaluating Manipulation Methods in Russian National Elections from 2000 to 2021

It is not disputed that Russia's elections under Vladimir Putin are fraudulent. Ballot stuffing to bolster the party's vote share or turnout numbers is among one of the known tactics. Existing analyses of the Kremlin's election manipulation either group together vote share and turnout fraud or evaluate them on a country-wide basis. Media noted the Kremlin's particular focus on improving turnout in the lead-up to the 2018 election, but no project has yet evaluated if turnout was manipulated or to what extent. By conducting a two-tiered regional analysis of precinct-level election data spanning ten election years, I use the Integer Percentage Point method and Resampled Kernel Density tests to compare turnout and vote share abnormalities. I ask how the nature of election fraud has changed during Putin's presidency. I find that, while vote share remains the primary number manipulated, ethnic republics exhibited different patterns of ballot stuffing than other regions. I suggest three implications of this work. First, that fraud is often easy to spot. Second, that election observers are a relevant policy response to election manipulation. Third, that turnout is a concern for the Kremlin, and should be considered in future analyses.