Here to Stay or Move Away? – Investigating the Impact of Climate Change-Related Natural Disasters on Migration Decisions

The impacts of climate change on migration are expected to dramatically shift existing paradigms in the field of human mobility studies. As trends indicate the intensification of the adverse effects of climate change, so too are related climate displacement and migration forecasted to develop into a full-blown international crisis. In the face of these developments, this paper contributes to climate migration research by uncovering how the effects of climate change-related natural disasters form migration decisions, using Germany's deadly 2021 Ahr Valley flood for an in-depth and scholarly study. Synthesizing an analysis of the flood event and interviews with flood victims results in findings that suggest that if those affected by the flood had extensive local social networks, received sufficient government aid, and did not suffer adverse health effects, the likelihood increased that they would remain in the Ahr Valley despite the elevated risk of such a flood event reoccurring in the future and the appending costs thereof. These results provide policymakers with insights they can use toward policy designs that alleviate the adverse effects future climate migration is predicted to carry.