Published March 12, 2025
| Version v1
Journal article
Open
Confronting Earth System Model trends with observations
Creators
- 1. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research
- 2. University of Chicago
- 3. Imperial College London
- 4. University of Miami
- 5. ETH Zurich
- 6. University of Virginia
- 7. University of Exeter
- 8. University of Oxford
- 9. Environment and Climate Change Canada
- 10. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Description
Anthropogenically forced climate change signals are emerging from the noise of internal variability in observations, and the impacts on society are growing. For decades, Climate or Earth System Models have been predicting how these climate change signals will unfold. While challenges remain, given the growing forced trends and the lengthening observational record, the climate science community is now in a position to confront the signals, as represented by historical trends, in models with observations. This review covers the state of the science on the ability of models to represent historical trends in the climate system. It also outlines robust procedures that should be used when comparing modeled and observed trends and how to move beyond quantification into understanding. Finally, this review discusses cutting-edge methods for identifying sources of discrepancies and the importance of future confrontations.
Data availability
All data needed to evaluate the conclusions in the paper are present in the paper and/or the materials cited herein. CMIP5 or CMIP6 data are available from data portals https://aims2.llnl.gov/search or download sites for the cited reanalyses.Files
sciadv.adt8035.pdf
Files
(1.2 MB)
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Additional details
Identifiers
- DOI
- 10.1126/sciadv.adt8035
- Other
- oai:uchicago.tind.io:14722
Funding
- National Science Foundation
- AGS-2300037
- National Science Foundation
- AGS-2330009
- National Science Foundation
- AGS-2241752
- U.S. Department of Energy
- DE-AC52-07NA27344
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:
- NA23OAR4310597
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- NA23OAR4310634
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- NA23OAR4310441
- National Center for Atmospheric Research
- 1852977
- UK Research and Innovation
- EP/Y036123
- U.S. Department of Energy
- DE-SC0022070
- Alfred P. Sloan Foundation
- UK Natural Environment Research Council
- NE/V012045/1
- UK Natural Environment Research Council
- NE/T006250/1
- Swiss National Science Foundation
- PCEFP2-203376