Semiconductors and the Calculation of the Balance of Power

How will assessments of the future balance of power be affected by the profound importance of semiconductors for modern militaries and for global and local economies? I argue that four overarching characteristics of the semiconductor industry, each exacerbated by the specifics of U.S.-China relations, render the anticipation of shifts in the balance of power remarkably difficult. The industry is highly dynamic and unavoidably sensitive to subtle and unpredictable developments; innovation is driven by a commercial sector increasingly divorced from military needs; the quantities and types of chips needed by militaries and their ability to reliably secure them is increasingly unpredictable; and producing and accessing chips in major conflict environments would be exceptionally challenging. The profound importance of semiconductors in great power politics greatly reduces the ability to anticipate shifts in the balance of power with any certainty.