Physical Sciences Division
Published November 13, 2020 | Version v1
Journal article Open

Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales

Creators

  • 1. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  • 2. East China Normal University
  • 3. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
  • 4. Universidad Pablo de Olavide
  • 5. University of Chicago
  • 6. ETH Zurich
  • 7. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
  • 8. Institut Pierre Simon Laplace
  • 9. University of Liège
  • 10. Massachusetts Institute of Technology
  • 11. University of Nottingham

Description

The extent and impact of climate-related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well as on human factors such as land use or population density. Here we quantify the pure effect of historical and future climate change on the exposure of land and population to extreme climate impact events using an unprecedentedly large ensemble of harmonized climate impact simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. Our results indicate that global warming has already more than doubled both the global land area and the global population annually exposed to all six categories of extreme events considered: river floods, tropical cyclones, crop failure, wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves. Global warming of 2°C relative to preindustrial conditions is projected to lead to a more than fivefold increase in cross-category aggregate exposure globally. Changes in exposure are unevenly distributed, with tropical and subtropical regions facing larger increases than higher latitudes. The largest increases in overall exposure are projected for the population of South Asia.

Notes

Due to the large number of authors, only the first 20 and the University of Chicago authors are included on the above author list. Please download the article for the complete list of authors.

Data availability

The ISIMIP2b climate input data and impact model output data analyzed in this study are available in the ISIMIP data repository at ESGF, see https://esg.pik-potsdam.de/search/isimip/?project=ISIMIP2b&product=input and https://esg.pik-potsdam.de/search/isimip/?project=ISIMIP2b&product=output, respectively. More information about the GHM, GGCM, and GVM output data is provided by Gosling et al. (2020), Arneth et al. (2020), and Reyer et al. (2019), respectively. The tropical cyclone track data are available for research purposes from K. E. (emanuel@mit.edu) on request. Researchers will be asked to sign a nonredistribution agreement and to assert that the data will be used for nonprofit research only.

Files

Earth s Future - 2019 - Minoli - Global Response Patterns of Major Rainfed Crops to Adaptation by Maintaining Current.pdf

Files (27.7 MB)

Additional details

Identifiers

DOI
10.1029/2020EF001616
Other
oai:uchicago.tind.io:14049

Funding

Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
01LS1201A2
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
01LS1711F
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
01LA1829A
European Council
FP7 Environment
European Council
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme
European Council
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme
Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan
2RF-1802
Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan
S-14
ETH Zurich
Fel-45 15-1
Leibniz-Gemeinschaft
SAW-2013-PIK-5
Leibniz-Gemeinschaft
SAW-2016-PIK-1
Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad
PCIN-2017-046

UChicago Information

Division(s)
Physical Sciences Division
Department(s)
Computer Science